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Virginia Primary Preview and Predictions
Originally posted here.
Photo credit: annandaleva.blogspot.com
Tuesday is primary day here in Virginia. There’s not much going on, and there probably isn’t a whole lot of interest in state legislative primaries unless you’re a Virginia resident, but I thought I would write up a quick guide to the primaries and give my predictions. If you want more information on these races, either visit the Virginia Public Access Project or look through the Senate and House of Delegates race analyses that I posted back in June. I didn’t cover all these races in those rundowns; if it’s not there, it’s a safe seat that is not going to be competitive (or probably even contested) in November.
Edit: Oh, I forgot to mention, the percentages are how much of the district’s population resides in each locality. I got that data from VPAP.
State Senate
SD-03 (R) – James City 25%, Gloucester 17%, York 15%, Isle of Wight 10%, New Kent 9%, King William 7%, Poquoson 6%, Suffolk 5%, King and Queen 3%, Hampton 3%
Candidates – Total Raised
some dude Mark Frechette – $4,597
incumbent Tommy Norment – $1,030,810
Prediction: Starting off with an easy one — the Senate Minority Leader vs. a cash-strapped Tea Partier. Norment will crush Frechette.
SD-13 (R) – Loudoun 74%, Prince William 26%
Candidates – Total Raised
former Del. Dick Black – $147,070
’99 and ’07 SD-27 nominee Bob FitzSimmonds – $51,319
Prince William County Supervisor John Stirrup – $141,193
Prediction: As entertaining as it would be to see Black win the nomination and potentially lose the general, most of the establishment support has coalesced around Stirrup, so the chance of a Stirrup/FitzSimmonds split of the vote seems unlikely. I’m predicting Stirrup to win.
SD-21 (R) – Roanoke City 50%, Montgomery 32%, Roanoke County 9%, Giles 9%
Candidates – Total Raised
insurance agent Tripp Godsey – $8,890
Del. Dave Nutter – $121,608
Prediction: Another Tea Partier with empty coffers, Godsey was the only Republican running until just before the primary filing deadline back in June, when Nutter jumped in. Nutter should win this one with no problem.
SD-22 (R) – Lynchburg 21%, Amherst 16%, Fluvanna 13%, Goochland 12%, Prince Edward 11%, Appomattox 8%, Buckingham 8%, Cumberland 5%, Louisa 5%
Candidates – Total Raised
Buckingham County Supervisor Brian Bates – $73,806
attorney Tom Garrett – $122,398
Lynchburg Republican Party chairman Mark Peake – $89,608
attorney Bryan Rhode – $157,781
Amherst County Supervisor Claudia Tucker – $64,626
Prediction: Yeesh, five candidates and they’re all from different localities. This one’s going to have an interesting result. Rhode is leading the money race, but Tucker has been getting some surprisingly strong endorsements, including former House Speaker Vance Wilkins. I’m going to take a random guess and say Tucker, because I have no earthly clue.
SD-30 (D) – Alexandria 41%, Fairfax 31%, Arlington 28%
Candidates – Total Raised
Del. Adam Ebbin – $238,544
Arlington County School Board member Libby Garvey – $223,621
Alexandria City Council member Rob Krupicka – $263,691
Prediction: I think Krupicka has the edge here; his base is in Alexandria, while Ebbin and Garvey are both Arlington candidates. If either of the two were to upset Krupicka, I think it would be Ebbin.
SD-31 (D) – Arlington 57%, Fairfax 32%, Loudoun 11%
Candidates – Total Raised
attorney Jaime Areizaga-Soto – $343,821
Arlington County Board member Barbara Favola – $277,066
Prediction: This has been one hell of an acrimonious primary. Favola has run one of the worst campaigns I’ve ever seen, and if she wins the nomination, she could potentially lose this solidly-blue seat. Despite that, she has a ton of establishment support. Sigh… my heart says Areizaga-Soto, but my head says Favola.
SD-36 (R) – Prince William 53%, Fairfax 41%, Stafford 6%
Candidates – Total Raised
former Del. / former Republican Party of Virginia chair Jeff Frederick – $164,714
contractor Tito Munoz – $70,121
Prediction: Munoz is yet another Tea Partier, while Frederick is the “establishment” pick (though most Republicans can’t stand him anymore). Frederick’s old House district is almost entirely within the new SD-36, so I think he’ll have the edge here.
SD-37 (R) – Fairfax 100%
Candidates – Total Raised
businessman Jason Flanary – $75,503
’10 nominee Steve Hunt – $37,340
Prediction: Hunt came within 1% of beating Marsden in 2010, but Flanary has raised twice what he has, so I’m not sure if Republicans want to give him another crack at it. I’ll say Flanary wins this one.
SD-39 (R) - Fairfax 61%, Prince William 21%, Alexandria 18%
Candidates – Total Raised
attorney Miller Baker – $157,563
college professor Scott Martin – $143,207
Prediction: I really haven’t heard anything about this primary. Both candidates have loaned their campaigns quite a bit of money. The establishment seems to be lining up behind Baker, so I’ll go with him.
House of Delegates
HD-10 (R) – Loudoun 76%, Frederick 17%, Clarke 6%
Candidates – Total Raised
Loudoun County Republican Party chairman Randy Minchew – $140,087
former Bush administration appointee Cara Townsend – $26,765
attorney John Whitbeck – $87,569
Prediction: Minchew’s ties to the Loudoun County Republican Party and outraising both other candidates combined will likely carry him to victory.
HD-18 (R) – Fauquier 53%, Warren 21%, Culpeper 16%, Rappahannock 10%
Candidates – Total Raised
businessman Kevin Kelley – $32,590
farm manager Michael Webert – $100,570
Prediction: I hate to use money as a primary indicator, but Webert does seem to be dominating there, so I’ll go with him.
HD-49 (D) – Arlington 77%, Fairfax 23%
Candidates – Total Raised
activist Stephanie Clifford – $24,969
Kaine administration appointee Alfonso Lopez – $65,543
Prediction: Lopez, who is pretty much universally considered the frontrunner.
HD-87 (R) – Loudoun 86%, Prince William 14%
Candidates – Total Raised
Virginia Republican Party official Jo Ann Chase – $25,424
consultant David Ramadan – $252,775
Prediction: Yeah, that’s not a typo, Ramadan has outraised Chase 10-1. Of course, most of that money is from loans and a couple huge individual contributions. Either way, that’s a huge money gap, so I’ll say Ramadan.
HD-90 (D) – Norfolk 60%, Virginia Beach 40%
Candidates – Total Raised
incumbent Algie Howell – $50,415
college lecturer Rick James – $22,140
Prediction: Howell’s always in danger, being a white guy in a majority-black seat, but always seems to get off easy with weak challengers. James is probably the strongest one he’s faced so far, but I still think Howell will retain his seat.
HD-98 (R) – Gloucester 46%, Middlesex 14%, Essex 13%, Mathews 13%, King and Queen 9%, King William 5%
Candidates – Total Raised
businessman Sherwood Bowditch – $87,665
attorney Kenneth Gibson – $27,958
pharmacist Keith Hodges – $85,528
businessman Catesby Jones – $23,176
Prediction: Tough one here; Bowditch and Hodges look like the two most likely winners, but I think Bowditch’s ties to retiring Del. Harvey Morgan, who has served in the House for 30 years, will give him the edge: Bowditch served as an aide to Morgan and got his endorsement in this primary.
HD-99 (R) – King George 27%, Westmoreland 22%, Northumberland 18%, Lancaster 17%, Richmond County 10%, Caroline 8%
Candidates – Total Raised
former Congressional Chief of Staff John Lampmann – $11,354
businesswoman Margaret Ransone – $130,778
Northumberland County School Board member Dean Sumner – $16,915
Prediction: Ransone has a huge cash advantage, which is crucial considering this district stretches across the Northern Neck up into Caroline County.
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